TOR: An In-depth Analysis (Study) of the interface between Climate Security, Violent Extremism & Natural Resource-Based Conflict in the ASALs of Kenya – Kenya

REF: ACT-CSS-03-2023

1.1 About Act Change Transform (Act!)

Act Change Transform (Act!) is a not-for profit non-governmental organization that was established in Kenya in September 2001 and registered under the provisions of Non-Governmental Organizations Coordination Act of 1990. With an organizational vision of empowered communities living productive lives in dignity, Act! focuses on building the capacity of individuals and communities, thus empowering them to get involved in the decisions and management of their own development. Act! approaches its development work through three broad programmatic areas; 1) Peace Building and Conflict Transformation, 2) Democracy and Human Rights, 3) Environment and Natural Resources.

1.2 Resilience Peace and Stability (RPS) Programme

The Resilience, Peace, and Stability (RPS), Programme funded by the Danish International Development Agency (DANIDA) and implemented by Act Change Transform (Act!), aims to promote resilience, peace, and stability in Kenya by decreasing violent extremism, political and natural resource-based conflicts. While the project addresses three major localised dimensions of conflict, political, resource-based, and violent extremism, RPS places priority on addressing the drivers of violence. The program hypothesizes that strengthening opportunities for inter- and intra-community dialogue, supporting authorities and communities in effectively and equitably sharing resources, and enhancing the ability of law enforcement to respond to security threats is expected to improve community resilience and reduce the level of conflict.
Overall RPS Program objective: “Decrease violent extremism, political and natural resource-based conflicts in Kenya.”

1.3 RPS Programme outcomes:

. Enhanced cooperation and trust between communities and government agencies (esp. police) based on respect for human rights and good governance.
. Enhanced relations between groups and communities affected by conflict (inter-ethnic, intra ethnic, other conflictual in-groups and out-groups.)
. Increased anchoring of at-risk individuals in the communities through improved messaging, economic opportunities, social linkages and sense of belonging especially for women, youth and vulnerable communities to reduce pull and push factors towards violence.

2.0 Climate Security in ASALs of Kenya
Climate change is a major concern across the world with differentiated impacts on people and the planet. Low and middle-income countries are often affected most heavily due to their high dependence on climate-sensitive agricultural economies, limited governance structures, and institutional capacity to cope with the complex impacts of climate change. In Africa, rising temperatures and shifting weather patterns varying in scope and scale across the region have become more severe and frequent. Impacts have included extreme weather events such as heatwaves, heavy precipitation, prolonged drought, wildfires, and flooding among others threatening lives and livelihoods.
These climate change impacts have had cascading risks beyond the environmental realm affecting other human systems. Specifically, climate change has direct and indirect, nonlinear, and multi-dimensional links to security. Whereas violent conflicts have many causes, climate change can exacerbate risks known to contribute to insecurity. Consequently, recent evidence confirms the confluence of climate and conflict risks where 70% of the bottom quartile of countries most vulnerable to climate change are also amongst the most fragile countries in the world. Moreover, the UN security council has more recently recognized the adverse effects of climate change among other factors on stability in several contexts, including in West Africa and the Sahel, Central Africa, and the Horn of Africa.
Climate-related security risks occur when critical thresholds are exceeded, and the coping capacity of communities and countries is compromised. Some security risks are more visible through pathways such as food insecurity, poverty, and increased inequality. Similarly, climate change impacts can cascade into other socioeconomic systems affecting job markets, global food prices, and geopolitical stability. These security risks are also not limited to violent conflicts but can also be observed in other types of insecurity including organized crime, armed group activity, and sexual and gender-based violence.

Specific interlinkages including both direct and indirect threats to human, national, and international security have been observed across sectors as follows:

• Water Resources: Increased water shortages because of prolonged drought or rainfall fluctuation can expose women and children to increased risks of sexual and gender-based violence as they are forced to walk long distances to collect water.

• Food and Rural Development: Increased food insecurity and price volatilities as a result of climate change can lead to heightened competition for land and natural resources contributing to instability and fragility.

• Energy and infrastructure, and transport: Extreme weather events can destroy essential energy, financial and agricultural centres which degrade a country’s economic viability.

• Urbanization and Migrations: Climate-related disasters in urban and economic hotspots with increasing rural-urban migration harbour major political volatility.

• Governance: The strength of governance structures affects how well a country responds to climate change impacts and risks. If climate disasters occur, the legitimacy of state institutions is also threatened. Similarly, the lack of alternative livelihoods in the face of climate change effects on natural resource-based livelihoods can incentivize young people to join armed groups.

Despite this understanding, contextual analysis of the causes, forms, and scale of climate security is still limited. A thorough risk analysis is necessary to identify whether observed climate change impacts can increase security risks. This analysis can further the planning and implementation of new modes of climate change adaptation and mitigation programming in conflict and fragile countries that reflect the multidimensional and interconnected nature of climate change impacts.

Africa, and particularly the Horn of Africa region has suffered from near cyclic droughts blamed on climate changes. According to Intergovernmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), the Horn of Africa region is staring at a sixth failed consecutive rainfall season. In Kenya, the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) that accounts for 70% of the country’s total land mass have been the hardest hit the cumulative effects of climatic changes. Drought is increasingly becoming an annual event in this region. Currently and according to the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA), a total of 23 counties in Kenya are at an alarm stage of droughty, putting livelihoods of close to 5 million Kenyans at a risk. NDMA has termed the current drought as the worst in Kenya’s recent history. These ASAL counties have had a legacy of natural resource-based conflicts, radicalization and violent extremism. Already, the ASAL areas have recorded an upsurge of resource-based conflicts especially in North Rift and Upper Eastern regions. It is feared that the prolonged drought will increase the community’s ecological needs, leading to resource based conflicts and violence. It is also feared that extremist groups like Al-Shabaab may capitalize on this natural disaster by accusing the government of being insensitive to the ecological needs of the minority (and according to Al-Shabaab), often marginalized Somali and Muslim communities in Kenya. Despite of this obtaining situation, there is little information regarding the interplay between climatic changes, radicalization that often leads to violent extremism and natural resource-based conflicts. There is also a dearth of information on how state and non-state stakeholders should respond to this crisis by strengthening the ability of the communities to adapt to the obtaining situation. This is why, according to Act!, this study is timely.

2.1 Objectives of the Proposed Study

The Assessment of the interface between climate change, violent extremism and natural resource-based conflicts in ASALs in Kenya seeks to enhance understanding of the contextual climate-related security risks in Kenya, with a focus on ASAL counties. This is in view of identifying gaps and solutions to responding to identified climate-related risks. Information from this assessment will be used to inform the formulation of potential actions and or project design on climate security risks in select ASAL Counties. Such counties are not limited to the following Isiolo, Meru, Kitui, Kilifi, Laikipia, Baringo, West Pokot, Turkana, Samburu, Wajir, Kajiado; Kisumu, and Migori counties.

The specific objectives are,

i. An analysis of climate change related security risks particularly the linkages between climate change and security in Kenya and their implications for peace and stability.

ii. Assessment of key existing climate security programs, policies and legal frameworks in Kenya. The assessment would also include mapping state and non-state stakeholders that are currently programming around climate security, their impacts, challenges, and lessons learned.

iii. Potential high-impact adaptation actions/recommendations that could be incorporated into project design addressing identified climate security risks.

2.2 Proposed Tasks and Methodology

The study will be done through an engagement with key stakeholders working in climate change and conflict including government bodies both national and county, CSOs, community members, environment and security think tanks among others.

Key tasks include;

• Detailed literature review and desk study of climate security risks and existing intervention programs across key sectors in Kenya;

• Key informant and focus group interviews with relevant partners, community groups, and expert organizations implementing climate security programs, national and in specific counties;

• Analysis of findings and generation of detailed report complete with key conclusions and recommendations report;

• Facilitate a validation workshop on the draft report of report of findings with identified key partners/ experts/stakeholders in the country and internal staff;

• Integrate feedback on the draft report to produce the final assessment report with practical recommendations and actions that can inform the RPS programme adaptation and response.

3. Outputs/Deliverables

The ideal expert or service provider shall be responsible for the following deliverables:

. A detailed inception report for the climate security study that includes: a demonstration of the understanding or the assignment; initial desk analysis of the subject matter; a detailed proposal on the approach and methodology for conducting the study; key team members; a detailed work schedule with clear timelines; data collection and analysis tools; and framework or outline of the final report.

. A draft report of findings on status of climate security and the current interventions or innovations to address climate security; Validation Workshop reports;

. Final Process and Study Reports for the study of climate security in ASALs in Kenya.

. An appendix of all referenced materials and listing of all consulted entities and individuals (with contact information)

The final study report must include a detailed status and recommendations for climate security interventions with a focus on sustainability. The analytical report should not be more than 40 pages excluding annexes. All other materials should be submitted as annexes to the main report. The main report should be structured as follows:

a) The title page of the report;
b) The Executive Summary (maximum 6 pages);
c) Introduction (including background on climate security; problem statement, methodology, structure of the report) – Maximum 8 pages
d) Key findings, general Conclusions and Recommendations for programming (Maximum 25 pages)
e) Annexes (if any)

4. Time frame
The consultancy is expected to take a maximum of 45-person days commencing 20 March, 2023. These include the preparatory phase, data collection and report writing. The final deliverables should reach Act! by 5th May, 2023.

5. Required Qualifications

The Consultancy firm or team of individuals with the following qualifications.
• Proven experience in research in environmental/climate change and conflict issues,
• Experience with baseline and evaluation studies,
• Previous experience and good comprehension of the local context where the study will be conducted.
• Minimum 7 years of relevant work experience with climate security, conflict prevention, and resilience and/or environmental management,
• Experience in a national setting with national or international organizations is an asset.
• Fluency in the English language is required.

6. Selection Procedure

Qualified consultant or consultancy firms are required to submit;

• A five-page proposal to Act! interpreting the terms of reference and elaborating the consultancy methodology and design, level of effort required to fully deliver the assignment, and with a work plan and budget (cost proposal) for undertaking the assignment with separate Itemized costs under: (a) Professional fee per day, (b) logistical Costs e.g. vehicle hire, research assistants, accommodation costs etc. per day.
• Brief overview of consultant/consultancy firm and the skills and experience they would bring to assignment
• CV of consultant or CVs of team members– maximum 3 pages or a Company/firm profile.
• Contact details of three referees from organizations that have recently contracted the consultant/s to perform similar or related work for the last 2-3 years.
• Sample reports of relevant consultancy work.

How to apply

Submission on the Expression of Interest/Responses to TORs

All proposals should be submitted electronically in (PDF format) to quoting the reference number ACT-CSS-03-2023 on the e-mail subject line. The same should reach us not later than 05:00 PM (East African Time) Wednesday 15th March, 2023.

All materials to be developed under this assignment are property of Act! and may not be reproduced under any circumstances.

Act! is an equal opportunity employer with zero tolerance to corruption

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